A topic of conversation among college football fans across the country every year is the ranking of the conferences.
“THE SEC IS THE BEST CONFERENCE IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL!”
“NO WAY, HAVE YOU SEEN THE BIG TEN?!?! IT’S MUCH BETTER THAN THE SEC THIS YEAR!!!”
You get the idea.
But what about the ACC?
Heading into the 2018 season, there could not be more uncertainty about how this conference will shake out. It’s been a long, long time since I remember this much disparity among preseason predictions for teams across the conference.
Clemson is the consensus favorite to win the conference, and it’s not particularly close. The Tigers enter the year with one of the most talented teams they’ve had under Dabo Swinney, highlighted by what could be one of the best defensive line units in college football history. Clemson represents the conference’s only true hope for a national champion in the upcoming season, but their chances of fulfilling the aspirations of winning a title come down to one position:
Quarterback.
In fact, the position will largely affect how outsiders view the conference as a whole in 2018. But let’s start with title contending Clemson…
The Tigers welcome back senior quarterback Kelly Bryant, who was one of the nation’s most efficient passers in 2017. Despite his efficiency in the passing game, his skill-set in regards to pushing the ball down the field is limited. This limitation was no more apparent than in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama, as Nick Saban’s defense loaded the box against the Clemson offense, daring Bryant to beat the Crimson Tide with his arm. Clemson was unable to exploit the Alabama man-defense in the downfield passing game, and as a result, the Tigers were denied an opportunity at their third straight national championship appearance.
Whether or not Clemson will make it back to their third national championship in the last four years will once again come down to the downfield passing game. Kelly Bryant is battling for his starting job with true freshman Trevor Lawrence, a consensus five-star prospect with an absolute cannon for an arm. Lawrence has the raw talent and pedigree to be one of the best college quarterbacks in the country over the next couple of seasons, but Dabo Swinney will need to make a decision on whether or not Lawrence is ready to start right away. Regardless of what decision Dabo ultimately makes, it is clear that Lawrence will see the field in 2018–one way or another–and how far Clemson goes this season will be almost entirely predicated on what the quarterbacks are able to contribute to the offense.
Elsewhere in the ACC, Miami looks primed to take another step forward in 2018 after a largely successful 2017. The Hurricanes stormed to a 10-0 start and put themselves in prime position to make a run at a College Football Playoff berth. This 10-0 start was at times, in spite of the shortcomings of quarterback Malik Rosier. Rosier’s inconsistency held the Hurricanes back in 2017, but if he improves in 2018, the Canes should be a lock to make it back to Charlotte for the ACC Championship. They’re surely the favorites out of the Coastal as the season begins, but their chances of truly challenging Clemson in the ACC Championship hinge on the improvement of Rosier.
While Clemson and Miami enter the season as the favorites to win their respective divisions, there are plenty of other schools where seasons will be made or broken on the arms of the quarterbacks. Duke took a considerable step back offensively in 2017, which is, at the very least, partially due to the regression of sophomore quarterback Daniel Jones. After a 2016 freshman season where Jones completed 63% of his passes for 2,836 yards with 16 touchdowns to only nine interceptions, his numbers took a hit in all categories last season. The sophomore slump accounted for Jones only completing 57% of his passes for 2,691 yards with 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Many prognosticators are high on Duke this year in the Coastal Division, but their chances to take a step forward and compete rest largely on Jones returning to form.
How about Florida State, where there is more question marks around the quarterback position than there have been in quite some time. Deondre Francois entered the year last year with Heisman expectations as the starting quarterback for a preseason top five team. However, he was injured in the opener against Alabama and missed the rest of the season. Now, with a year on the shelf, a new coaching staff, and an above-average showing in 2017 from rising-sophomore James Blackman, the starting quarterback job is up for grabs. Whoever takes the reigns at Florida State will be expected to be very good, right away. 7-6 seasons are not the norm in Tallahassee, and things will need to improve quickly, starting at quarterback, for Florida State to be good in 2018.
Louisville is replacing a Heisman Trophy winner and an electric athlete in Lamar Jackson, but is doing so with former 4-star recruit Jawon “Puma” Pass. Pass is more or a pro-style type of quarterback, which fits Bobby Petrino’s offense to a T. Many will forget that Petrino’s offense has never been considered one that requires a dual-threat quarterback, but things certainly changed when Lamar Jackson entered the fold. Good coaches adapt schemes to players, not players to schemes, and that is absolutely what Petrino did with Lamar Jackson over the last handful of seasons. Now with Jawon Pass at quarterback instead of Jackson, many expect the Cardinals’ offense to sputter. However, if Pass lives up to expectations, the offense at Louisville has a chance to be every bit as efficient as when Jackson was at the helm, whether fans want to believe it or not.
If there is one school that can’t wait for this offseason to come to a close, it’s Virginia Tech. The Hokies had a whole host of defections on defense, from the coaching staff to actual personnel, and nearly had a defection with their starting quarterback, as rising redshirt-sophomore Josh Jackson faced an academic issue earlier this summer that put his future eligibility at-risk. With the academic issue now put to rest, the attention turns to Jackson in his second full season as Virginia Tech’s starter. Heading into the season, the Hokies replace most of their defense and a couple key pieces on offense, including All-ACC guard Wyatt Teller and the school’s all-time leading receiver, Cam Phillips. As a result, the expectations for the Hokies have been tempered a bit for 2018, but a favorable schedule and an improved Josh Jackson could lead to the Hokies surprising some people this season.
Through the first eight games of last season, Jackson threw 17 touchdowns to only four interceptions, and emerged as one of the most efficient freshman signal-callers in the country. However, Jackson sputtered down the stretch, throwing three touchdowns and five picks in the final five games. Jackson was banged up and looked like a shell of himself, and turned into a liability, rather than a weapon in the latter portion of the season. If he returns to form, the Hokies could be a surprise in the Coastal in what is perceived to be a rebuilding year.
Virginia Tech’s in-state rival Virginia will be leaning on JUCO transfer Bryce Perkins to lead the charge offensively in 2018. Perkins has yet to take a snap at the collegiate level, but has received rave reviews from the coaching staff throughout fall camp, and certainly looks the part in his junior college tape. Based on his raw talent alone, Perkins has the potential to be one of the top quarterbacks that Virginia has had in a long, long time. I understand that is a low bar, but if he is able to provide some consistency at the quarterback position for Bronco Mendenhall and the Cavaliers, bowl games may no longer be a goal, but an expectation.
Wake Forest meanwhile, is looking to continue to take another step forward under coach Dave Clawson, who has done an admirable job turning the program around in Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons lose quarterback John Wolford to graduation, who came out of nowhere last season to become one of the nation’s top quarterbacks. It was quite the turnaround for Wolford, who went from throwing more interceptions than touchdowns in his career prior to 2017, to becoming one of the most accomplished single-season passers in school history. Wolford capped off his career with 3,192 yards with 29 touchdowns and six interceptions last season, while completing 64% of his passes.
His replacement in 2018 will be Kendall Hinton, who he spent a good bit of time splitting reps with prior to 2017. Hinton is suspended for the first three games due to a violation of team rules, but is expected to step into the starting role when he returns in week four. Hinton’s production through the air will determine the effectiveness of the Wake Forest offense as a whole this season. Hinton has always been effective as a runner, but has never completed more than 57% of his passes in a single season. In a year where Hinton is expected to gain more reps than he ever has at quarterback, he will need to improve through the air.
Can Boston College and Pittsburgh find a competent passing game with their two young passers? Anthony Brown looked the part for BC in limited action before injury a year ago as a true freshman, while Pitt’s Kenny Pickett didn’t get the call until late in the season, when he led an upset of College Football Playoff-contending Miami. If Brown and Pickett take a step forward after positive steps in limited action last season, BC and Pitt could both move the needle offensively.
Syracuse just needs Eric Dungey to be healthy. Dungey, when on the field, is one of the most talented passers in the entire ACC. The problem is that if you get much past October each of the last couple of seasons, Dungey has been sidelined with various ailments. He can really spin it when healthy, and the Orange could potentially surprise and become a bowl team in 2018 if they keep their talented senior leader on the field. A strong running game would go a long way to taking the pressure off Dungey, who has been banged up in the past due to rushing the ball more often than he probably should.
Last, but certainly not least, NC State is one of those teams where quarterback play could drastically change the outcome of the 2018 campaign. The Wolfpack have a very young defense, and an offense looking to fill the void of two of their best playmakers from last season: running back Nyheim Hines and hybrid tight end Jaylen Samuels. The one constant that remains at the forefront of NC State’s hopes to contend in the Atlantic is quarterback Ryan Finley. Finley is the best quarterback in the ACC, make no mistake about it, and if he has a strong finish to his collegiate career in 2018, the Wolfpack could absolutely make some noise in the ACC.
Finley threw for over 3,500 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions a year ago, and may be asked to shoulder even more of the load heading into the upcoming season without two of the team’s leading playmakers on offense from last season. Regardless, don’t expect that much of a drop-off for NC State. I personally believe that they are more than a one-hit wonder, and another 8-4 regular season record certainly isn’t out of the question in a tough ACC Atlantic.
These are the schools where I believe that quarterback play could most likely swing individual seasons. As the saying goes, “a rising tide lifts all boats,” and the tide in the ACC this season will be quarterback play. The reputation of the conference in 2018 rests on the shoulders of the signal callers, from veterans to new faces.
If numerous quarterbacks step up and perform to, or beyond, expectations, the conference as a whole should have a very strong year here in 2018. A perceived down year by prognosticators could instead be a season of surprise for the conference as a whole, and it will be real interesting to watch the play of the quarterbacks as the season gets underway.