In this week’s NCAA RPI Rankings, there are eight Atlantic Coast Conference teams in the top 19. By all measures, it is the strongest baseball conference in the nation this season. However, an ACC team has not won the College World Series since Wake Forest defeated Western Michigan 7-6 in 1955. Is this the year a conference team can end the championship drought?
A glance at statistics show that this year could be the conference’s best chance at crowning a champion since the NCAA legislated new BBCOR bat standards in 2011. Several ACC teams compare favorably to College World Series participants, while two teams in particular stand out as squads that could bring home hardware from Omaha.
First, let’s look at the 16 teams that have participated in the College World Series in the last two seasons. There’s certainly some variety in the strengths and weaknesses of the clubs involved. Last year’s champion, Arizona, rode hot bats to its title, while teams such as the 2011 Texas and South Carolina squads (with the Gamecocks finishing as champions) relied on solid pitching. Regardless of the makeup, the figures are all very strong. 43 NCAA Division I teams have a batting average better than .295, the average offensive rate of these teams. Similarly, only 29 teams in Division I baseball currently have a sub-2.96 ERA, which is the average of the last 16 College World Series participants.
How do ACC teams look compared to those baselines? Six ACC teams (along with two future ACC members) meet at least one of these averages so far in 2013. Furthermore, North Carolina and Virginia, as well as Louisville, meet all five benchmarks. Many teams would love to have the offensive weapons of a Georgia Tech or the pitching of Florida State, but these three teams have both.
How do they compare to those 16 teams we mentioned previously? Only six of the sixteen had batting averages above .300, but North Carolina and Virginia both are currently above that mark. North Carolina and Virginia’s slugging percentage is only bettered by the 2012 Stony Brook squad that made a surprise run to Omaha. Six CWS participants over the last two years have struck out eight batters or more per nine innings, another stat bettered by the Tar Heels and Cavaliers.
Furthermore, North Carolina’s 2.22 ERA is currently better than any of the 16 teams that made trips to Omaha in 2011 and 2012. North Carolina and Virginia are both scoring more runs per game than any of those 16 teams, a list led by the Arizona team that won last year’s championship. The Tar Heels are scoring nearly 1.75 more runs per contest than that Wildcats team. This, combined with that 2.22 ERA, makes them a particularly dangerous team.
There is plenty of time for these numbers to change over the next two months. There are several marquee ACC series remaining on the schedule, starting with Virginia hosting Florida State this weekend in a battle of top-ten teams. North Carolina will be dealing with the loss of freshman outfielder Skye Bolt until at least April 29, who suffered a broken foot in the Tar Heels’ sweep of Virginia Tech last weekend. Nonetheless, this appears to be the conference’s best chance in recent memory to claim a College World Series crown.
Follow Inside the ACC on Twitter at @InsideTheACC. Like Inside the ACC on Facebook. Get your ACC links at ITA’s Daily NewsLink Page. Talk about ACC sports on the ITA Forums.
Man, you are slinging some serious numbers! Typical baseball guy. 🙂
Worth noting: while no team in the ACC has won the CWS since 1955, current ACC member Miami won four CWS titles before joining the ACC: 1982, 1985, 1999 and 2001.