The Camping World Independence Bowl takes place on December 26th in Shreveport, Louisiana. It’s the day after Christmas and both teams in this game would like to get one last present before the season is done. The game matches Vanderbilt, of the SEC, up against North Carolina State from the ACC. Both teams come into this game having won their season finales in upset fashion over their in-state rivals. When they look back at this season it’s safe to say both teams had their ups and downs, but winning a bowl game would help them end on a high note heading into the off-season.
This game matches up two teams who have seen the most consistency this season from the defensive side of the football. The Commodores and the Wolfpack both sit at 5th in their respective conferences in scoring defense; each allowing right about 22-23 points per game. NC State enters the game as the favorite by less than a touchdown and these two defenses should keep the game close.
After starting off the season slow on offense against conference foes, Vanderbilt was able to find some magic in the last two games against Ole Miss and Tennessee where they managed to average 36 points-per-game after only averaging 23 points-per-game during the season as a whole. They’re going to need to find that magic again against a stout defensive front for the Wolfpack. The key for the Commodore offense will be their ability to get junior running back, Ralph Webb, off and running early in order to give their anemic passing game a chance. He’s Vanderbilt’s leading rusher by far, but it will be very hard for them to score on the Wolfpack defense if they can’t get sophomore quarterback, Kyle Shurmur, involved in the passing game as well.
One the other sideline, Head Coach Dave Doeren’s offense also has to be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Vanderbilt is better against the run so NC State’s Ryan Finley will need to be efficient in passing the ball to keep the Commodore defense honest. If he can protect the ball and get it into the hands of the multi-talented Jaylen Samuels, then some holes should start to open up for talented senior running back, Matt Dayes. Both players enter this game with 10 touchdowns a piece. Again, the more touches you see Dayes and Samuels get, the more likely Wolfpack fans will be celebrating a bowl win. The key this season in the Wolfpack’s wins was winning the turnover battle. When Finley protects the ball, they can be hard to beat.
This game could be one of the better matchups of the bowl season. Both teams come in here with some momentum and confidence. They rely on strong defenses, which can always help keep things stable early in the game. Vanderbilt will need to score early and they will need to score touchdowns. The Commodores hold an advantage in red zone efficiency on both offense and defense. NC State is capable of putting up points fast when they get on a roll and they have the defense to protect the lead. In the end, the turnover battle and red zone efficiency will be the difference. If Vanderbilt can get the Wolfpack to turn the ball over, they can win this game. If the Wolfpack can turn more field goals into touchdowns then they should be looking good at the end of the game.
At the end of the day, I think NC State’s diversity on offense will win out over the one-dimensional Commodores, but it will be a close one.
NC State 24 Vanderbilt 17