ACC Basketball: Making Sense of The Postseason Picture

At this point in the college basketball season anyone claiming to have a crystal ball is more likely shaking a Magic 8-Ball. The picture becomes a little clearer with each game and it would appear that while the teams at the top of the ACC are battling it out for a favorable draw and high-seeds in the NCAA Tournament, the battle in the middle of the ACC pack is much more interesting. With Syracuse having removed itself from the postseason picture it looks like the ACC may only get six teams into the dance, we take a look at the likely candidates.
 

NC State

The Resume

The Wolfpack appear poised to slide in and fill the void left by the “Orange Vacuum” (patent pending). At 17-11, State has the worst overall record of the teams on the cusp of a tournament berth but all three have an 8-7 mark in ACC play. The Wolfpack are helped by an impressive strength of schedule ranked second toughest in the nation and an overall RPI rank of 35. A trio of marquee wins over then #2 Duke, #9 Louisville and #15 North Carolina sets the Pack resume apart, and that’s not including close losses to UNC, Notre Dame and Virginia. Two causes for concern are the 4-5 record in the last nine games that includes puzzling losses to Wake Forest and Clemson.

The Players

For a guard-oriented group, State really rebounds the ball well currently ranking 32nd in the nation with 38 rebounds per game. The post group of Kyle Washington, Abdul-Malik Abu, Lennard Freeman, Caleb Martin and Beejay Anya may not wow individually but the contributions quickly add up. Freeman only plays 18 minutes per contest but leads the team in rebounding (5.6 RPG). Anya leads the ACC in blocked shots with 2.7 and all of these kids chip in points which is plenty when you have a trio of guards that can score like Cat Barber, Ralston Turner and Trevor Lacey.

The Outlook

NC State is very talented and has surprising depth along the frontline. I’m still not entirely sure how good Mark Gottfried is as an in-game coach, but he gets results and this would make him 4-for-4 at getting Wolfpack teams into the NCAA Tournament. As with most teams, State can make a run if they get a favorable draw. Losses to Wofford, West Virginia, Cincinnati and Purdue show that NC State is just as capable of losing to a quality opponent on any given night as they are of pulling the upset.
 

Pittsburgh

The Resume

Pitt has notable wins over Notre Dame and North Carolina plus a season sweep of Syracuse. The lone non-conference highlight came against Florida Gulf Coast (21-8, 11-2 A-Sun). The albatross around their collective necks comes in the form of a 70-67 overtime loss to Virginia Tech (RPI 221). The Panthers are also just 2-7 in true road games this season, though that hasn’t hurt their RPI too much with a ranking of 38.

The Players

Not many kids have put together a better overall performance against ACC competition than sophomore Jamel Artis. The forward has put up 16 points per game against conference opponents this season. He’s scored 20 points or more in seven of 15 ACC games and posted double-figures in 13 consecutive games. Guard James Robinson is third in the conference in assists (5.2 APG) and forward Michael Young (13.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) pairs nicely with Artis to create a formidable frontline for the Panthers.

The Outlook

Pitt has three regular season games left against Wake Forest, Miami and Florida State. If they win out, that would put them at 22-10 overall and 11-7 in the ACC. It’s certainly not unheard of for a team to be left out with a resume like that (cough Virginia Tech cough) but I don’t find it very likely that a program with such a high RPI number could be left out. If they do get in, Pitt has a tendency to make every game close which makes them ripe for an upset. They’re also more than capable of playing up to an opponent that outmatches them.

 
Miami

The Resume

Of the ACC bubble teams Miami clearly has the weakest resume. The Canes have an RPI of 65 and a strength of schedule pegged at 79th. The most compelling non-conference win came over a 17-11 Illinois squad that might make the NCAA’s and the only truly big-time ACC win was an impressive 16-point victory at Duke (solid W’s over NC State and Syracuse help some). The remaining regular season games are critical for Miami starting with a home date with North Carolina on Saturday. That’s followed with games at Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. Those are two chances at quality wins and two potential road wins, though Tech will hurt that strength of schedule a bit.

The Players

Tonye Jekiri has proven himself to be one of the most dominant big men in the ACC. He ranks first in rebounds (10.6) and fourth in blocks (1.6) while shooting 72.4% from the free throw line. He’s become an indispensable part of the Hurricane attack which is a big leap forward for the seven-foot junior. Sheldon McClellan continues to pace the backcourt for Miami, but Angel Rodriguez has been incredibly inconsistent of late following up a 1-for-12 shooting performance in a two-point loss to Louisville with 25 points in a win over Florida State.

The Outlook

The Canes are looking at the party from the outside right now, but they have a chance to change that. A couple wins down the stretch and a strong showing in the ACC Tournament would really muddy the bubble picture. It’s essentially impossible to envision the ACC getting eight teams into the tournament and plenty of people will call me nuts for saying seven should make the field, but that’s where we are. Miami needs to beat Pittsburgh and get lot’s of help from other bubble teams to sneak in. If they make it, I don’t think the Canes are as likely to make a run as State or Pitt given the reliance on McClellan. If Angel Rodriguez gets hot, that’s a different story but he’s too inconsistent at this point to be counted on.

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